Bitcoin Bull Cycle Expected to Deliver 3-5x Gains, Not Another Parabolic Rally

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes that Bitcoin's current bull cycle will deliver gains of 3-5 times, but not another parabolic rally like in earlier eras. According to him, this is because the asset has matured and its market structure has changed.

Ju points out that Bitcoin's MVRV ratio, which compares its market capitalization with realized capitalization, has remained above one throughout this cycle. This indicates that holders are not underwater based on their cost basis, unlike in previous bear-market bottoms.

He also notes that rising realized capitalization shows fresh money entering the network, even if price gains become less explosive. Ju estimates that $697 billion of realized-cap growth has produced a 689% gain during the current cycle, compared to around $2.7 billion generating gains exceeding 55,000% in Bitcoin's early years.

Furthermore, Ju argues that institutional ownership and Bitcoin's larger valuation are limiting the percentage response to each new dollar entering the network. He expects a milder bull market followed by a less severe bear market, but acknowledges that sharp corrections can still occur.