Bitcoin Bulls Bank on Iran Ceasefire Sparking Rally

Crypto traders are banking on easing tensions between Iran and the US to spark a rally in Bitcoin and risk assets. Analysts Michaël van de Poppe and Ted Pillows point out that Bitcoin's strength above key support levels indicates underlying market strength despite ongoing conflict.

The bullish thesis relies on oil prices dropping, which traders see as a tailwind for crypto. With Brent crude currently trading at $87, down 10% from recent highs, Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets could benefit from lower energy prices, Michaël van de Poppe said over the weekend.

However, shipping and commodity experts remain skeptical, warning that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively constrained. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, predicts it may take until next year for the waterway to fully reopen, which has driven crude prices to multi-week highs and sent US gasoline prices 38% higher since February.