Bitcoin Closes Gap with Gold as 2026 Performance Odds Shift

Bitcoin's recent rally has narrowed the gap between its price performance and that of gold in 2026. According to Kalshi traders, Bitcoin now has a 47% chance of outperforming gold on the year, up from around 25.7% at this time last week.

The cryptocurrency's surge has been impressive, with gains exceeding 7% in the last month of trading. This is despite rising treasury yields and a Federal Reserve rate hike, which have traditionally been negative for Bitcoin's price.

On the other hand, gold prices have fallen, down more than 8% in the last month of trading. Analysts told CNBC that the current interest rate situation and hawkish Fed 'strengthens the dollar and is negative for gold.'

Kalshi traders are becoming less optimistic about gold's performance, with odds of it finishing the year at $4,300 or above falling to 60% on Friday, down from as high as 72% earlier this month.