Bitcoin Could Hit $157,800 as Volatility Declines

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has used Bitcoin’s Power Law model to suggest a potential price target of $157,800. On October 3, when Bitcoin was trading at approximately $84,700, the Power Law oscillator stood at +34.5. According to the model, a reading of +100 corresponds to around $157,800, which is roughly 86% above the reference price. This figure is not a conventional price target but estimates where Bitcoin might trade if it returns to a historically elevated deviation from its long-term trend.

The $157,800 estimate is significant because it reflects changes in Bitcoin’s cycle extremes. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the Power Law oscillator peaks have decreased from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025. Additionally, the standard deviation of daily oscillator changes has dropped by about 49%, indicating that Bitcoin’s deviations from its long-term trend have become less extreme over time.

Despite this long-term outlook, the immediate market structure remains a key focus. Bitcoin recently tested the $87,000, $87,300 resistance level but failed to break out sustainably. A convincing move above $87,300 could bring $90,000 into focus, with further potential to reach $95,000, $100,000. Institutional demand continues to support Bitcoin, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting approximately $6.34 billion in Q3 2026, the strongest quarter of the year.