Bitcoin Enters 'Uptober' on a Flat Note, Historical Performance Still Expected

Bitcoin has begun October, which is often referred to as 'Uptober', on a flat note, trading near $83,423. The month has historically been favorable for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 18.49% since 2013 and a median gain of 12.73%. However, this year's performance may be influenced by declining ETF flows, which have turned negative in September.

The quarterly chart shows that Bitcoin has broken out of its previous structure, gaining 7.36% in July, 24.95% in August, and 6.33% in September. This is a significant development, as it indicates that Bitcoin has stopped trading like stocks or gold.

Average October returns are inflated by the early years of Bitcoin's price action, with 2013 returning 60.79% and 2017 delivering 47.81%. Removing these outliers, the picture moderates, with recent years showing mixed results: October 2024 gained 10.76%, while October 2025 fell 3.69%. Three of the last thirteen Octobers were negative.

The current chart structure is intact, with Bitcoin holding above $82,303, which has acted as support twice this year. The 50-day EMA at $78,027 sits above the 200-day EMA at $74,540, both of which are rising.