Bitcoin Hits Ceiling as Institutions Break Even Near $86K

Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, gaining 23% in just 21 sessions while equities have remained flat. However, this uptrend hasn't yet reversed the year's losses, with Bitcoin still down 10% since January.

The US Core Inflation rate has fallen to a two-year low of 2.5%, while inflation expectations sit at 3.6%, creating a gap between what households expect and what the data prints, the widest in three years.

Despite this, the market is still facing headwinds, with the bond market indicating restrictive policy. The US 10-Year Treasury yield has reached its two-year high of 4.8%, while the 2-Year yield trades roughly 63 basis points above the federal funds target.

The overhead ceiling for Bitcoin currently stands between $83K and $86K, a range that three independent sources, long-term holder cost basis, the liquidation map, and the ETF break-even, all agree on. The derivatives market draws the same ceiling, with short liquidation levels concentrated in this range.

Long-term holders have barely moved their assets between $83K and $86K, while supply acquired below this range has grown. Institutions are also breaking even near $86K, which would put them back in profit for the first time this year.