Bitcoin Lags Behind S&P 500 as Equities Reach Record Highs

The S&P 500 has reached record highs, but Bitcoin hasn't joined in. Benjamin Cowen and Trader Mayne warn that historical midterm-year patterns could still produce a late-summer or fall equity correction, dragging Bitcoin lower.

Cowen points out that the S&P 500's advance to around 7,750 is consistent with previous U.S. midterm election years, where equities continued setting records through August or September before entering a meaningful correction.

The Federal Reserve's Sept. 16 meeting could be a catalyst for this correction, Cowen says. A hike in interest rates could pressure risk assets by signaling the end of the easing cycle, while keeping rates unchanged could create volatility if inflation remains elevated and long-term Treasury yields continue climbing.

Cowen is watching the S&P 500 to estimate when Bitcoin could establish its market-cycle bottom. Historically, Bitcoin reached its final bear-market low during the second major equity correction of previous midterm years.