Bitcoin May Deliver 3-5x Returns This Cycle, Not a 10x Rally

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has made a surprising prediction for this Bitcoin bull cycle. He expects it to deliver 3-5x returns, rather than another parabolic 10x rally, followed by a significantly milder bear market.

This shift is attributed to the maturation of the market, which is now dominated by institutional ownership and has a substantially larger market cap. The same forces that previously capped the upside are also softening the downside.

The data from on-chain metrics such as the PnL Index, MVRV ratio, and realised cap support this view. They show less extreme cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels than previous cycles.

Ju notes that while Bitcoin has not reached a ceiling, the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, which invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money.