Bitcoin Nears Bullish Signal Not Seen in Over a Year
Bitcoin is on the verge of confirming a bullish technical setup that hasn't been seen in over a year. The cryptocurrency's 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are close to aligning in ascending order, indicating that short-, medium-, and long-term trends are all pointing upward. According to CoinDesk, the final step needed is for the 100-day moving average to cross above the 200-day average. If this happens, it will mark the first time since June 24, 2025, that the 50-day average is above the 100-day, which in turn is above the 200-day.
This alignment is closely watched by technical analysts because it shows that recent prices are, on average, higher than those recorded over longer periods. In simpler terms, it suggests that the recovery is no longer just a short-term move but is also reflected in medium- and long-term trend indicators. This signal follows a strong rebound for Bitcoin in the third quarter, with the cryptocurrency surging over 40% between July and September. Bitcoin briefly reached approximately $86,900 during the early hours of Monday, nearing an eight-month high close to $87,400, before retreating to the $86,000 range.
Historical data shows why this alignment attracts attention. Similar moving average configurations preceded some of Bitcoin's biggest rallies, though the indicator doesn't always predict future price movements accurately. For example, the setup observed between October 2020 and May 2021 coincided with a 615% increase in Bitcoin's value. Another instance, between October 2023 and August 2024, accompanied a nearly 170% rise. However, in other cases, the gains were shorter or less significant. A related indicator, the 'golden cross,' which occurs when the 50-day average surpasses the 200-day average, has historically been followed by an average 24.9% increase in the subsequent three months.
Despite the positive signals, technical indicators alone cannot predict future price behavior. Changes in macroeconomic conditions, ETF flows, or spot demand could quickly invalidate the technical setup. In the short term, analysts are monitoring Bitcoin's ability to stay above its 50-day moving average. A consistent drop below this level could weaken the bullish outlook before it solidifies. Externally, the U.S. employment report released on Friday showed only 29,000 jobs added in September and an unemployment rate rise to 4.2%, reducing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. This supported Bitcoin's climb back toward $87,000.