Bitcoin Outlook Brightens as Halving Cycle Suggests End of Bear Market

The historically-reliable 4-year halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin's bear market may be coming to an end. The outlook for Q4 is turning cautiously optimistic due to renewed ETF purchases, compelling valuations, and improving buy-and-hold behavior among investors.

From a technical perspective, the balance of risks has shifted to the topside, with the near-term bias outright bullish above $80K. Looking at the 4-year cycle, previous halvings have marked transitions from bear markets to recovery rallies, and it's possible that we've reached the peak of the last cycle in Q4 2025.

The fundamental and technical outlook for Bitcoin remain mixed, but are shifting to a more constructive backdrop. The ongoing shift to a focus on re-accelerating inflation may develop into a potential headwind, though concerns about fiscal sustainability and inflation could offset that risk.

ETF purchases have revived, with total inflows near $57B, and long-term holders have recovered their proportion of Bitcoin held for at least a year. Longer-term valuation measures remain compelling, suggesting that the cryptocurrency may be nearing a bottom.