Bitcoin Poised to Shatter Decade-Long Streak Amid September Gains

Bitcoin's September gains have surpassed 7%, following an impressive 25% increase in August. Historically, every positive August has been followed by a negative September, but this trend may be broken if Bitcoin closes the month positively. A positive close would mark three consecutive monthly gains for the cryptocurrency, from July through September, and leave the third quarter up over 40%, its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.

The fourth quarter is typically bitcoin's strongest, with an average gain of around 77% according to CoinGlass data. However, the current macro backdrop is volatile, with rising bond yields and inflation concerns fueled by oil prices holding above $90 a barrel. Additionally, gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.

The upcoming quarter brings two further tests for liquidity and risk appetite: Anthropic's reported plans for a November IPO could draw investor attention and capital towards a major new equity listing, although the offering's timing and size have not been finalized. The U.S. midterm elections in November may also add further volatility as investors assess the policy outlook.