Bitcoin Price Recovery Faces Rate Hike Pressure

Bitcoin's price recovery is being put to the test as it faces increasing pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of additional rate hikes. According to Binance Research, the key macroeconomic headwind for Bitcoin is the rise in long-term Treasury yields, which recently reached a 15-year high of 5.17%. This has led to growing expectations of another rate hike in October, with the probability climbing to about 70%.

Despite this, spot-market demand remains strong, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of $999 million on September 21, the largest daily net inflow this year. This has pushed cumulative ETF flows for this year back into positive territory. Additionally, technical indicators have improved, with Bitcoin posting a weekly close above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks.

A golden cross also formed on September 8, when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. However, Binance Research notes that the sample size is small and the periods overlap, making it difficult to treat as a direct price signal. The research firm's outlook remains positive, but conditional, with upcoming inflation and employment data set to determine whether Bitcoin's rebound can continue.