Bitcoin Puell Multiple Hits 11-Month High Signaling Potential Market Shift

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $85,310, down 0.14% over the past 24 hours. At the same time, the Puell Multiple, an on-chain mining profitability metric, has reached an 11-month high of 1.0771. This indicator measures daily miner issuance value in USD against its 365-day moving average. A sustained reading above 1.0 on weekly closes could signal the end of the accumulation phase and the start of a broader market reversal.

The Puell Multiple helps assess miner revenue relative to its long-term average. When the ratio falls below 1.0, it suggests miners are earning less than their annual average, often indicating market capitulation or accumulation. Conversely, readings above 1.0 point to improved network health and stronger price momentum. The current 11-month high of 1.0771 suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from an accumulation phase to an expansion phase.

The initial upside target for Bitcoin, based on the Puell Multiple, is set at 2.00. Historically, sustained readings above 1.0 have marked inflection points in Bitcoin’s cycle, often preceding significant price increases. However, the thesis depends on the Puell Multiple maintaining above 1.0 across multiple weekly closes. If miner revenue deteriorates due to a sharp price decline or a surge in hash rate, the reading could drop below 1.0, invalidating the reversal thesis.

The Puell Multiple does not track exchange flows, whale behavior, or leverage, making it a macro-cycle tool rather than a short-term oscillator. Its peaks have become less extreme over successive cycles, reflecting Bitcoin’s maturing market structure and reduced volatility.