Bitcoin Reclaims 50-Week EMA as ETF Flows Surge
Bitcoin's recent surge has put it at its strongest levels since early May, with some analysts calling this a bear-trend reclaim. The market closed the week around $77,727 on Bitstamp, having reached $79,550 during the rally. This is significant because it marks the first time Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) since November 2025.
The 50-week EMA has historically been a pivotal line for bear markets, and traders are watching to see if this breakout will be sustained or retested. Rekt Capital noted that even if price holds above the 50-week EMA, it still needs to overcome resistance around the $80,000 area.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that 'new money' has broken into net profitability, with long-term holder profitability moving towards breakeven and short-term holders now net profitable. However, this also means that the market's distribution is narrower, making it more vulnerable to a sharp pullback if prices fall below the key breakeven band around $73,000.
The near-term direction of Bitcoin will likely remain sensitive to US policy signals, particularly with the upcoming Jackson Hole economic symposium and the release of PCE inflation data. The market has been weighing how Fed chair Kevin Warsh approaches interest-rate guidance, as well as inflation risk stemming from geopolitical drivers such as oil-price volatility.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen a sharp rebound in net flows, totaling $1.9 billion over the prior week, the strongest weekly total since October 2025.