Bitcoin Reclaims Key Moving Average as Cycle Low Odds Rise

Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week moving average for the first time in over 10 months. Analyst Alex Thorn noted that historically, a close above this average has served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are 'in.' The move comes after Bitcoin's price surged back above $81,000.

The 50-week moving average had previously served as a ceiling during bear markets, according to Thorn's research. He found that in four of the five completed bear markets, the first weekly close above this level was followed by no lower low. However, the exception was the 2021-2022 downturn, when Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the average twice before falling further.

Joe Consorti offered a more bullish interpretation, stating that a close above the average had historically carried a 75% chance of marking cycle lows, rising to 100% if you exclude the Covid crash. Thorn's study also found that regaining the 50-week MA has historically been followed by no lower low.