Bitcoin Smart Money Buys Amid Rally, But Treasury Yields Cast Shadow

Santiment's data shows that Bitcoin wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have added 113,950 BTC since July 15. This accumulation has lifted the group's combined balance by 2.22% to roughly 5.24 million BTC.

This cohort is considered one of the 'most useful smart money groups to watch' by Santiment, and its five-year study found that it closely tracks the crypto market's direction. Historically, this group has tended to build positions ahead of or during Bitcoin's stronger price stretches.

The current rally fits this record, with the cohort adding coins as Bitcoin climbed from mid-August. This suggests that well-capitalized holders and retail traders are supporting the rally.

However, macro conditions turned against the rally on Wednesday, with a hot US PMI report pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. This revived fears of another Federal Reserve hike, causing Bitcoin to fall below $84,000. Glassnode's on-chain data shows that the largest cluster of long-term holder supply is between $84,000 and $85,000.

Glassnode sees $95,000 to $97,000 as the next major test for Bitcoin, with the mean Market Value-to-Realized Value (MVRV) price at $96,700 within that range. Holding above $84,000 keeps this path open, but a drop below it would bring the $77,000 True Market Mean back into view.