Bitcoin Spot Demand Recovers Globally but Lags in the U.S.

Bitcoin spot demand is showing signs of recovery as the price of the leading cryptocurrency reached $85,000. On-chain data reveals a notable shift, with the 30-day apparent demand metric improving from -182,000 BTC to -101,000 BTC during the week of September 24 to October 1. However, this trend is not mirrored in the U.S., where the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating persistent selling pressure from American investors.

Analyst MAC_D of CryptoQuant emphasized that while Bitcoin demand is recovering globally, confirmation from U.S. spot markets is still absent. A key signal for the rally's sustainability would be a shift in apparent demand to positive territory, accompanied by a recovery in the Coinbase Premium.

Another analyst, Darkfost, highlighted the restrained recovery of spot volumes in the crypto market. Spot volumes had plummeted to three-year lows in July but have since begun to rebound. In September, spot turnover on major exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and Kraken showed significant increases compared to July. Darkfost stressed the need for accelerated spot market activity and heightened demand to propel Bitcoin to new highs.

Glassnode noted that long-term Bitcoin holders have remained profitable throughout the current market phase, a rarity not seen since 2015. Historically, the MVRV of this investor group fell below 1 at cycle lows, indicating losses. This time, Bitcoin bottomed with the metric above 1, signaling stronger market fundamentals.

Analyst anti_fragile pointed out that Bitcoin's largest gains typically occur after reclaiming its long-term mean. Currently, BTC is 13% away from this point. Past cycles show that most growth happens after the first close above this mark, with peaks usually following more than a year later. Bitcoin concluded the third quarter with a 42.71% increase, its best performance for this period since 2017.