Bitcoin Surges 36% in Five Weeks, But Will the Trend Continue?

Bitcoin's price has surged by 36% since August 18, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust returned only 0.05% over the same period, while the SPDR Gold Shares dropped 1.4%. This divergence has led to discussions about whether the established correlation between Bitcoin, stocks, and gold is coming to an end.

The five-week correlation reading shows a rise against a flat stock market and declining gold price, but this may be short-lived as the longer-term 90-day correlation with gold remains high. Two of the three key drivers behind Bitcoin's recent rally, Treasury buybacks and short squeezes, tend to reverse quickly.

However, sustained spot ETF inflows represent a more durable demand signal, with $999 million flowing into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on September 21, the highest amount since October 2025. To determine if this trend continues, investors should watch for net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin's price holding above $80,875 as five-year yields rise.