Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a critical support test as it approaches the $77,000 level, following a weekend drop to $79,250. Analysts at Bitfinex attribute the decline to persistent selling pressure and uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The cryptocurrency has fallen 9.3% from its September 21 high of $87,392, marking its deepest correction since July. The $81,300 support level, previously held for weeks, has now turned into resistance, with about 874,000 BTC held between $81,000 and $82,500 potentially adding to selling pressure during recovery attempts.
Bitfinex identifies the $77,000 to $77,765 range as the next major support zone, based on large investors' cost basis and the True Market Mean. A sustained recovery above $82,500, supported by renewed demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), would signal the end of the current consolidation phase. However, risks surrounding the Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision remain, with a potential December rate hike limiting demand for riskier assets. Bitfinex also warns that Bitcoin’s derivatives positioning has not undergone the typical reset associated with durable market bottoms, as aggregate futures open interest rose to 669,253 BTC on October 25 despite the decline.
Despite Bitcoin's recent weakness, Galaxy Digital argues that the broader bear market for BTC has already ended. In a report published on Thursday, Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn noted that easing selling pressure, improving technical indicators, and mounting US government debt strengthen the case for buying and holding Bitcoin. Galaxy states that Bitcoin’s latest bear market was its shallowest on record, with the price falling roughly 53% from its October 2025 peak. The firm also notes that Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks through October 18, suggesting the market has entered a new phase.
Selling by long-term holders has also slowed, with Bitcoin held in wallets untouched for at least five years moving an average of 34,000 BTC monthly in 2026, down from 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024. Galaxy argues that spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasury companies absorbed much of the supply these holders distributed. However, the firm identifies a weekly close below $76,540, followed by a failure to reclaim that level within a month, as a potential warning that its bullish outlook may be wrong. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $80,050, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours.