Bitcoin Transfer Estimates Vary by Up to Six Times

The accuracy of onchain transfer estimates for Bitcoin has been called into question by a recent study from the Bank for International Settlements. The researchers found that different approaches to handling unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) can result in a variation of up to six times in apparent transfer volume.

UTXOs are essentially change received after making a transaction, and whether or not this is considered economic activity can significantly alter the picture. The study analyzed around 100 billion blockchain records across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron, and found that without careful methodology, onchain indicators should be treated as rough approximations rather than precise economic metrics.

The researchers identified approximately 13 million active contracts on Ethereum, including around 1.4 million tokens, but noted that sorting meaningful economic activity from automated contract interactions, bot traffic, and circular flows within the ecosystem is non-trivial.