Bitcoin (BTC) is underperforming compared to gold and long-term U.S. Treasuries, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone. He noted that one Bitcoin currently buys roughly 20 ounces of gold, but predicts this ratio is more likely to fall toward 15 than rise toward 25. McGlone pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility has been three times that of gold since early 2021, yet it has remained stagnant. He described Bitcoin's current performance as a 'relative dud' and questioned whether it can prove it's 'not a has-been.'
McGlone also compared the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). He set both at 100 at the end of 2024, but by October 30, the IBIT-to-TLT ratio had dropped to 81. Despite IBIT being roughly four times more volatile than TLT, it has struggled to stay above 100 since the fourth quarter of 2025. McGlone suggested that Bitcoin's weak run, which began in 2024, might signal the end of its 'glory days.'
Bitcoin's inability to hold above $80,000 could signal broader pressure on risk assets, McGlone warned. On Saturday, Bitcoin's price was around $77,300, down 3.4% from the level he highlighted. Retail sentiment around BTC remained in the 'bearish' zone, while chatter stayed at 'normal' levels. McGlone also noted that Bitcoin's muted response to the Binance (BNB) hack indicated its price has lagged behind AI-related stocks throughout the year.
Looking ahead, McGlone suggested that the U.S. Treasury's upcoming announcement on refinancing could provide relief for Bitcoin, gold, and AI stocks. He emphasized that the Treasury market is one of the world's most leveraged, and the recent outperformance of bonds over Bitcoin could be a sign of things to come.