Bitcoin Volatility Falls as Halving Takes Hold

Saifedean Ammous believes that Bitcoin's volatility is falling, calling it 'the most bullish development in Bitcoin right now.' He points to a reduction in bear-market drawdowns from around 87% to about 54%, which brings Bitcoin closer to being an investable asset for money managers.

The halving still drives the four-year Bitcoin cycle, Ammous explains. As the number of people buying with leverage at the top decreases, markets may eventually arbitrage these cycles away. However, this could also have a significant impact on the overall market, potentially leading to a more stable price for Bitcoin.

Ammous discusses how the US carries $40 trillion in debt as the world's reserve currency, contributing to rising treasury yields and a bond market bear case. He touches on war spending, Iran, and the collapse of fiscal hope, highlighting the need for alternative solutions like stablecoins and Bitcoin treasuries.