Bitcoin whales shift to withdrawals as profitability rises

Bitcoin's largest holders, known as whales, have shifted their behavior in recent weeks. After nearly three months of depositing Bitcoin (BTC) onto exchanges, they began withdrawing BTC at the end of August. This reversal marks the longest deposit period since 2023, with the 30-day moving average now showing more withdrawals than deposits. This trend suggests reduced sell-pressure potential during market volatility.

Whales are currently in a profitable position, with Bitcoin trading near $86,200. This price is well above their cost bases of $62,100 and $67,500. Smaller holders, or shrimp wallets, also remain profitable, having bought BTC around $48,000 during June's lows. Unlike 2022, when Bitcoin fell below all cohorts' realized prices, the current market structure appears healthier, with reduced selling pressure.

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric has recovered significantly, rising from +0.09 to +0.38 in three months, a 300% increase. This recovery contrasts with the prior bear market, when NUPL dropped to -0.31. However, sustained profitability could encourage large holders to take profits, potentially increasing exchange deposits and creating resistance if selling pressure rises.

Overall, Bitcoin's on-chain structure has strengthened with whale withdrawals and holder profitability. While the current market looks healthier than in 2022, renewed whale deposits could still trigger selling pressure.