Bitcoin Wins Back Majority Over S&P 500 as Correlation Breaks

Bitcoin's win rate against the S&P 500 has climbed back above 50%, indicating stronger individual demand for the asset. This metric measures how often Bitcoin outperforms the index over a rolling window of trading sessions.

The low point came in mid-August, when the three-month session win rate sank to 37.8%, its weakest reading in six years. However, September saw a turnaround, with Bitcoin gaining roughly 7% while the S&P 500 was flat or slightly positive. Gold fell more than 6% over the same period.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has effectively broken, according to analysts at Santiment. The index's 260-day correlation with Bitcoin now sits at its lowest level since 2015. This suggests that investors may be increasingly treating Bitcoin as its own asset class, rather than a traditional store of value.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw strong net inflows in September, coinciding with Bitcoin's relative strength against equities. However, the retail angle is worth watching closely, as smaller holders tend to chase momentum and may be fickle when the price stops cooperating.