Bitcoin's 200-Week Average: A Rough Floor for Rebound

Bitcoin's price has fallen below its 200-week moving average for only the sixth time in its history, according to CoinShares. This level has served as a rough floor during past downturns, historically preceding recoveries once prices dipped to or below it.

In each of the five completed touches since 2015, bitcoin traded higher a year later, with gains ranging from 13.2% to more than 1,080%, according to CoinShares. The most recent dip occurred in June 2026, when prices fell to their 200-week average of $61,608.95.

Bitcoin has logged 10 drawdowns of 50% or more in its 18-year history, and many investors have treated those stretches as buying windows rather than reasons to sell. The CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (BRRR) offers regulated exposure to bitcoin's price moves, allowing advisors to adjust exposure during pullbacks.

While the direction has repeated every time, with bitcoin worth more a year after each prior drop to this level than it was on the day it happened, the sample size is small and each episode unfolded under different economic conditions. Whether this pattern repeats remains uncertain.