Bitcoin's 33% Surge Still Leaves Many Buyers Underwater

Bitcoin has staged a remarkable comeback in the past 90 days, surging 33.4% to reach nearly $84,621 as of October 3. However, despite this impressive quarterly gain, the cryptocurrency still trades 29.7% below its price a year ago. This means many buyers are still waiting for their Bitcoin to break even, depending on when they entered the market. According to recent data, anyone who bought Bitcoin at prices above $84,621 is currently at a loss. Those who purchased near the all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025 need a nearly 50% increase to break even. Strategy Inc., a software company that has shifted to holding Bitcoin, reports an average purchase price of $75,419, resulting in a 12% profit. In contrast, Strive, an asset manager with a Bitcoin treasury, purchased its latest batch at an average price of $85,396, putting it about 0.9% above the current price. The timing of purchases matters, as Strategy's average includes older, lower-cost purchases, while Strive's recent acquisition reflects higher prices. Most recent gains benefited long-term holders like Strategy and those who bought near the July lows. For recent buyers, regaining their Bitcoin break-even price may require patience, potentially slowing Bitcoin's ascent between $85,000 and $89,000. If the price falls below $75,419, it could even push Strategy's average purchase price underwater. The question remains: Will Bitcoin surpass the start-of-year Bitcoin break-even price of around $88,750 before the end of 2026?