Bitcoin's 63% HODL Wave May Not Be the Bull Signal Everyone Thinks

Bitcoin's HODL wave has reached a new high of 63.3%, sparking speculation about a potential bull run. However, experts caution that this rise in the one-year share of supply may not be as significant as it seems.

The HODL wave measures Bitcoin's unspent transaction outputs by age band, with the rising one-year share indicating more coins have been inactive for at least 12 months. But Maketo's data shows that this increase is largely due to coins crossing the one-year boundary and entering the one-to-two-year band.

According to Glassnode's snapshot on September 18, the six-to-twelve-month band fell by 1.57 percentage points, while the one-to-two-year band increased by 1.05 percentage points. This pairing is consistent with coins aging into older bands.

Experts warn that attributing beneficial ownership and intent to these coins can be uncertain, as transfers between wallets controlled by the same person or custodian can make an output look young even when ownership has not changed.