Bitcoin's Next Move: Ki Young Ju Sees Milder Rally Ahead

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju expects a milder Bitcoin rally this cycle, predicting a 3-5x move rather than a 10x gain. According to him, this shift is not a sign of market decline but rather maturity.

Ju points out that when retail dominated the market and it was smaller, speculative 'hot money' fueled explosive rallies and brutal crashes. However, with a larger market and growing institutional ownership, these extremes are being dampened.

The CryptoQuant founder cites several on-chain signals as evidence of this shift, including the PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability. Cycle tops and bottoms are forming at higher profitability levels than in past cycles, indicating fewer investors getting wiped out at the bottom or overextended at the top.

Ju also notes that the MVRV ratio never dropped below 1 this cycle, meaning even at lows, holders stayed above their cost basis. This suggests a more stable market where fewer investors are taking extreme losses.