Bitfinex Sees Bitcoin Riding High Above True Market Mean

Bitcoin has maintained its position above Bitfinex's True Market Mean (TMM) of $76,350 over the past five trading sessions. The TMM approximates the average cost basis of active investors, and holding above this level keeps supply near breakeven instead of forcing widespread loss-taking.

The recent stability follows a strong August advance, where Bitcoin gained 24.9% from its monthly open at $62,922. This move was fueled by a 21.1% rise across three sessions in mid-August. The latest consolidation has absorbed greater macro uncertainty.

Bitfinex notes that momentum data offer a constructive signal, with Bitcoin recording 17 weekly gains above 15% since 2020. In 14 instances, BTC was higher on a rolling 30-day basis afterward, with a median return of 8.4%. Institutional activity remains relevant, with Strategy disclosing the purchase of 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million at an average price of $80,318 between August 24 and August 30.

The market now faces several macro catalysts in September, including US payrolls on September 4, CPI on September 11, and the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16. Bitfinex reported that September rate-hike pricing reached about 66% by August 31, increasing risk-asset sensitivity to incoming data.