Bond Market Volatility Knocks Crypto Lower

Bitcoin's price drop to around $83,300 on Thursday, September 24, has been blamed on the bond market. However, according to recent data, this may not be entirely accurate. The 10-year Treasury yield has indeed reached its highest level since 2007, but it's not the yields themselves that are causing the issue.

The correlation between Bitcoin and Treasury yields is actually quite loose, with a 90-day correlation of -0.18 and a full-year correlation of -0.03, according to CoinDesk data. In fact, since 2021, U.S. 10-year yields have climbed over 400 basis points, while Bitcoin has gained nearly 200% and hit a record near $126,000 in October 2025.

The real issue seems to be bond volatility, as evidenced by the MOVE Index, which tracks expected Treasury turbulence. On September 23, it jumped 21% to 95, its highest since April 1, CoinDesk reported. This volatility has led to leveraged traders cutting risk anywhere they can, and crypto tends to take the first hit.

The Fed's hiking path is also a concern, with four quarter-point hikes priced in by June 2027. This raises the bar for assets that pay no yield, making it harder for them to compete with traditional investments like bonds.