Chainlink Breaks Out Without Typical Reserve Spike

Chainlink (LINK) has broken out of a seven-month price range of $7 to $10, which started in September, and has rallied to a peak above $15.50 before pulling back to its current price of $13.887. What's notable about this breakout is the lack of a sharp increase in exchange reserves, which has been a characteristic of previous rallies on this chart.

Looking at the reserve chart since late 2023, a clear sawtooth pattern repeats, with reserves building gradually and then jumping sharply in a single move. This pattern has occurred at least six or seven times, and several of those spikes have landed close to local price tops or preceded price weakness.

This latest rally breaks that pattern, with reserves staying essentially flat near 124 to 130 million through the entire September to October move. Reserves currently sit at 124.3 million, which is near the lowest point of the entire multi-year window shown, well below the 190 million peak from early 2024.

A multi-year downtrend in available exchange supply persists across multiple price cycles, and the absence of a sharp reserve spike during this rally is a notable difference from previous breakouts.