Clarity Act Delay Triggers Downward Pressure on Bitcoin Price

The Clarity Act, a bill aimed at providing regulatory clarity for the crypto industry, is facing delays in the US Senate. The delay comes as the National Sheriffs' Association sent a letter to Senate leaders warning that the bill would create AML and sanctions exemptions for DeFi.

With recess starting on August 10, the Clarity Act's passage before then seems increasingly unlikely. Galaxy Research has halved its probability estimate for the bill passing in 2026, citing the crowded legislative calendar and lack of cloture filing. The delay would remove a near-term regulatory catalyst, applying downward pressure on BTC price heading into the August 9 close.

The odds of the Clarity Act being enacted by August 10 have been cut from 50% to 30% by Galaxy Research. The bill's prospects for passage before recess are further complicated by opposition from Democratic senators, who reject the Republican draft citing concerns over ethics and consumer protection.