Coinbase Launches Prediction Market for Los Angeles Temperature in 2026

Coinbase has launched a prediction market allowing users to bet on the highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 6, 2026. The market, set to expire on October 7, 2026, lets traders buy contracts at prices reflecting the market’s odds of the event occurring. For instance, a price of $0.65 would imply a 65% chance of the specified temperature being reached.

Traders can bet on whether the temperature will reach the predicted high by purchasing "Yes" or "No" contracts. If the event occurs, "Yes" contracts pay out $1 per contract, minus the purchase price and fees. Conversely, "No" contracts pay out if the event does not happen. The market has seen significant interest, with a reported interest of $676,081.76 and a 24-hour trading volume of $548,160.93.

Coinbase emphasizes that prediction markets are regulated and operate with clear rules. The outcome is determined by an independent, regulated exchange using official data as the "source of truth." Payouts are made after settlement, which may be delayed due to banking hours or third-party confirmation. The platform also notes that trading involves substantial risk and is not a recommendation to invest.

To participate, users need a Coinbase account and must complete onboarding for Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), including identity verification and income/net worth details. Trading is available 24/7, except during weekly maintenance windows from Thursday 3:00-5:00 am ET.