The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported a 23% drop in official development assistance from its donor members in 2025, falling to $174 billion. This decline, the largest on record, was driven by cuts from the US, Germany, France, and the UK. The reduction has raised concerns about the human cost, with studies linking it to increased mortality and damage to global health programs.
Historically, diverted aid money has often ended up in offshore financial centers known for secrecy. However, increased scrutiny and enforcement since 2016 have made traditional methods of hiding wealth more difficult. This has led researchers to investigate whether cryptocurrency has become a new channel for diverting aid funds.
A study by Agarwal et al. (2026) linked World Bank disbursements to cryptocurrency activity in 93 recipient countries between 2018 and 2024. The research found that anonymous bitcoin transactions routed through tax-haven exchanges surged by roughly 137% in the month aid money arrived. This activity returned to baseline within one to two months, suggesting a deliberate effort to conceal the funds.
The study estimated that 2 to 6 cents per aid dollar, or roughly $1.7 to $4.3 billion, was diverted through cryptocurrency channels. This figure is likely an underestimate, as the research focused solely on bitcoin and did not account for stablecoins, which now carry most illicit on-chain activity.