CryptoQuant Sees Bitcoin Bull Run with 3x to 5x Gains Ahead

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes the next Bitcoin bull run has begun, but expects a more modest gain of 3x to 5x from the lows, rather than a 10x surge. He attributes this outlook to the influence of institutional ETF and custody flows, which he says dampen volatility in the market. Ju explains that the bear market likely ended this summer, supported by on-chain data showing fresh capital entering the market without significant selling from large holders.

Ju highlights the PNL Index and ETFs as key liquidity channels driving the current cycle. He notes that the cost basis for ETFs is in the low-to-mid $80,000 range, a level he considers the institutional bull-bear line. The presence of custodial and accumulation wallets has also changed on-chain analysis, reflecting how institutions are now influencing the market dynamics.

Despite the more conservative outlook, Ju points to a substantial realized cap of nearly $700 billion, suggesting potential for trillions in the next cycle. He also discusses the importance of behavioral signals over price levels and examines miner costs as an indicator for future price movements.