Fed Decision Triggers Bitcoin Price Volatility Predictions

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, shared his insights on how the upcoming Fed interest rate decision could impact the Bitcoin price.

According to Zhuoer, the market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, which is expected with a probability of approximately 92% based on 30-day federal funds futures. He predicts that the Fed will raise its policy rate target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%.

Zhuoer also emphasized the importance of the dot plot interest rate forecasts, which will be published after the decision. He suggests monitoring the central trend, especially after removing the median and extreme forecasts, as it could indicate a total of two interest rate increases for 2026.

Based on his analysis, Zhuoer predicts that the initial market reaction will be a decline followed by a rise. He expects Bitcoin to fall below $75,000 after the decision and dot plot announcements but recover and test the $83,000-$84,000 region with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech.