IRGC Absence Clouds Iran-US Negotiation Prospects
A high-ranking Gulf official has revealed that the Iranian delegation involved in US-Iran negotiations does not include any representation from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful entity in Iran. The IRGC's approval is crucial for any provisional agreement, raising doubts about the potential success of the talks.
The ongoing negotiations aim to resolve tensions and establish a framework affecting the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions. Despite indirect channels being used through mediators like Qatar and Pakistan, the absence of the IRGC in the Iranian delegation has created uncertainty.
A 50:50 chance of a deal being reached by Friday is mentioned, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the process. Market pricing suggests subdued optimism, with a mere 1.4% probability for a deal by August 13, 2026, indicating cautious sentiment among market participants.