JPMorgan Asset Management has forecasted that Bitcoin could deliver 10% annualized returns over the next 10 to 15 years, outperforming traditional assets like stocks, bonds, and gold. The prediction comes from the bank's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, which for the first time includes a returns forecast for Bitcoin. Despite this optimistic outlook, JPMorgan does not currently include Bitcoin in its asset allocations due to its high volatility and unpredictable correlations with other assets.
The bank's projections show a wide range of potential outcomes for Bitcoin, with a bear case of -11.2% annualized returns and a bull case of about 16.5%. In comparison, JPMorgan expects U.S. large-cap stocks to return 7.5%, small-cap stocks 7.7%, gold 5.5%, and U.S. bonds between 5.6% and 6.6% annually. This means that $100 invested in Bitcoin could grow to $259 over a decade, compared to $206 in large-cap stocks.
JPMorgan cautions that Bitcoin's high volatility, assumed at 55% annualized, makes it a challenging asset to include in portfolios. The cryptocurrency does not consistently act as a hedge or a risk balancer, unlike gold, which has historically held its value during stock market downturns. As of October 26, 2026, Bitcoin is trading about 36% below its all-time high set in October 2025, presenting a potential buying opportunity for risk-tolerant investors.
The report does not constitute a buy recommendation from JPMorgan, which views Bitcoin as a speculative asset. The bank advises limiting Bitcoin exposure to about 5% of a portfolio. Meanwhile, The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team has not included Bitcoin among its top 10 stock picks, emphasizing that traditional stocks remain a more proven investment option.