JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Outperforming Gold as Institutional Hedges Unwind

JPMorgan analysts say that if institutional investors unwind their defensive hedges in exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin is likely to outperform gold. This prediction comes from a report published by JPMorgan on September 17, 2026.

The financial firm notes that while gold-backed ETFs have recovered all prior capital losses this year, Bitcoin-backed instruments have only offset half of the redemptions incurred over the same period. However, derivatives metrics indicate that institutional traders are assigning a defensive bias toward Bitcoin relative to gold.

JPMorgan's analysis shows that short interest on BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is near its annual ceiling in September 2026, while short interest on the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF currently sits below its historical average. Additionally, options market data reveals a higher demand for put contracts to protect spot positions in IBIT.

The report also notes that JPMorgan's long-term volatility-adjusted projections value Bitcoin at $266,000 when benchmarked against the global volume of gold. The bank warned earlier this year about narrowing legislative windows for advancing the Clarity Act in the U.S. Congress, which could impact portfolio allocations.