Quantum FUD: The Unlikely Threat to Bitcoin's Resilience

The threat of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin's cryptography has been a recurring concern for years. However, there is no evidence that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) will be built within a decade, and it remains unknown whether such a machine will ever be built.

Currently, the most advanced quantum computing machines are not capable of performing computations beyond what a precocious 6-year-old can do. These devices require massive amounts of power, setup time, and post-processing hours to perform even simple tasks.

The amount of money flowing into quantum computing does not necessarily translate to real-world technological progress. In fact, it can be argued that it has a negative correlation with the likelihood of applicable technology being developed. The development of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is often cited as an example of how a successful product can emerge from applying known science and satisfying a demonstrable market need.

The recent advancements in quantum computing have been mostly theoretical, with many papers focusing on pure mathematics rather than practical applications. Unless the quantum hardware has its own 'Falcon 9 moment', where it becomes stable and scalable enough to run meaningful computations, these advancements are nothing more than a distraction from the real challenges facing quantum researchers.

The development of post-quantum signature schemes such as P2MR or P2TRv2, SHRINCS, SPHINCS, IBC, ML-DSA, and others will eventually lead to improvements in Bitcoin's resilience against future attacks, even if a CRQC is never developed.