Robinhood Bets on Bitcoin's 2026 Price with Prediction Market

Robinhood has launched a prediction market for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on October 4, 2026, at 7 pm EDT. Traders can bet on whether the price will hit specific milestones, with varying odds and payouts. For example, there is a 70-cent chance BTC will be at or above $86,000, while the odds drop to 22 cents for a price of $86,400 or higher.

The prediction is based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), which collects 60 prices in the final minute before expiration. The official price is the average of these readings. Successful predictions will payout $1 per contract owned, but traders can also close positions before the event resolves. Additional fees apply.

Robinhood Derivatives, LLC offers these event contracts through platforms like KalshiEX LLC and ForecastEX, LLC. However, trading restrictions apply, especially for individuals with material, non-public information or those employed by related agencies. The platform emphasizes that trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for everyone.