Robinhood Bets on Ethereum Price in 2026 Prediction Market

Robinhood has launched a prediction market for the price of Ethereum (ETH) on October 4, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT. The platform allows users to speculate on whether the cryptocurrency will reach specific price thresholds, with the outcome determined by CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI). Payouts are based on the average of 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration.

The current predictions show a high confidence in ETH reaching $2,690 or above, with a 99% likelihood. The probabilities slightly decrease for higher thresholds, with $2,695 or above at 99%, $2,700 or above at 98%, and $2,705 or above at just 1%. Users can earn $1 for every correct contract they own or choose to close their positions before the event resolves.

Robinhood Derivatives, LLC offers these event contracts through various exchanges, including KalshiEX LLC and ForecastEX, LLC. The platform emphasizes that trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for everyone. It also notes that live data may be delayed or incorrect and that certain trading prohibitions apply to individuals with material, non-public information.