Robinhood Derivatives Offers Prediction Market for Bitcoin Price on Oct 3, 2026

Risk-takers have a chance to predict the price of Bitcoin on October 3rd, 2026 at midnight EDT. The prediction market, offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, allows traders to place bets on various price ranges. For example, they can bet that the price will be $84,500 or above, which has a probability of 93 cents.

The contract resolution process is based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), collecting 60 prices in real-time before expiration. The final value used to determine the outcome is the average of these RTI prices.

Traders can either close their positions or hold until the event resolves, with payouts usually made within an hour. However, they must be aware that trading prohibitions apply, including restrictions for employees of certain agencies and individuals holding non-public information on Bitcoin.