Robinhood Launches Bitcoin Price Prediction Market for 2026

Robinhood has introduced a prediction market for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on October 4, 2026, at 7 PM EDT. The market allows users to predict whether the price of Bitcoin will be $86,400 or above, $87,600 or above, or $87,700 or above. As of the latest data, 99 cents of the market predicts the price will be $86,400 or above, while 5 cents predicts $87,600 or above, and 2 cents predicts $87,700 or above.

The price used to determine the outcome is based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI). The final value is calculated by averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. Users can earn $1 for every contract they own if their prediction is correct or choose to close their position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply for trading.

Robinhood Derivatives, LLC offers these event contracts through various platforms, including KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEX, LLC, Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC, or North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. The company notes that trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for everyone. Live data provided is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.

Trading prohibitions apply to persons employed by any of the Source Agencies or those holding material, non-public information on the underlying asset. Similar events with restrictions and eligibility requirements also apply.