Robinhood Launches Bitcoin Price Prediction Market for 2026

Robinhood is offering a prediction market on the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on October 5, 2026, at 11:00 AM EDT. The contract allows users to bet on whether the price of BTC will be above certain thresholds, with payouts ranging from 26¢ to 79¢ per contract, depending on the target price. For instance, if Bitcoin reaches $85,400 or above, users will receive 79¢ per contract, while a price of $85,800 or above will yield 26¢ per contract.

The price used to determine the contract's outcome is based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI). The final value is calculated by averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. Payouts are usually made within one hour of the event's resolution.

Trading is available 24 hours a day, except for a brief maintenance window from 3:00 AM to 5:00 AM ET on Thursdays. Robinhood Derivatives, LLC facilitates these event contracts through various exchanges, including KalshiEX LLC and North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc.

The platform also highlights trading prohibitions, such as restrictions for employees of Source Agencies and individuals with material, non-public information about the underlying asset.