Schwab Estimates Bitcoin Fair Value at $95,000 Based on Production Costs

Charles Schwab's Director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy, Jim Ferraioli, has estimated Bitcoin's fair value at $95,000. This estimate is based on a methodology that uses production costs to determine fair value, rather than technical chart patterns or sentiment analysis.

The model identifies two key tiers: efficient miners who produce Bitcoin at roughly $60,000 per coin, and inefficient miners who face production costs around $95,000. Ferraioli treats the $95,000 figure as the near-term fair-value reference, accompanied by a small premium.

The logic behind this framework mirrors commodity pricing: if it costs $95,000 to mine Bitcoin, the market price should trade at or above that level to keep the network's mining base economically viable. The $60,000 efficient-miner threshold functions as a fundamental support level, below which even cost-effective operations start feeling pain.

Schwab's analysis emphasizes production-cost floors as key fundamental indicators, particularly during periods when Bitcoin's price dipped below $80,000 in 2026. At those levels, many mining operations were operating underwater relative to the $95,000 production cost estimate.