TD Cowen Cuts Nakamoto Target Amid Bitcoin Outlook Reset

TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete have lowered their split-adjusted price target for Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA) to $17, citing pressure from Bitcoin's decline on the company's debt-heavy capital structure.

The new target represents a 58% cut to TD Cowen's previous outlook, which assumed Bitcoin could reach $126,000 by October last year but now expects it to climb back to $100,000 by the end of 2026, roughly 25% off its all-time high.

Nakamoto currently holds approximately 4,467 BTC worth around $290 million and is the 22nd-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder. The company's debt and preferred securities make its common shares more sensitive to changes in Bitcoin's price.

TD Cowen views Nakamoto's recent balance sheet moves favorably, including repaying approximately $45 million of debt and extending $105 million of principal through June 2027.