Treasury Settlement Looms on September 30: Will It Trigger a Surprise Move in Bitcoin?

A significant US Treasury settlement is set to take place on September 30, with $202 billion in coupon bonds maturing. This event could potentially impact Bitcoin, as it tests overnight financing at quarter-end.

The Federal Home Loan Bank of New York notes that the market appears calm for now, but warns that net new supply could lift repo borrowing rates. The Treasury calendar lists a reopened 10-year inflation-protected bond and several other notes on Wednesday's settlement date, with a total public face value of $202 billion.

The Treasury estimates that $143.58 billion of publicly held coupon debt will mature on September 30, leaving $58.42 billion in net new face value. This is a measure of securities issued beyond maturities, not an observed cash drain or fall in bank reserves.