Trump's Iran War Claim Sparks Crypto Hopes as Oil Price Remains Stuck

US President Donald Trump has made a claim that oil prices will plummet once the war in Iran ends. Speaking in Dublin on September 12, he stated that the war would end 'very soon', likely after the midterms on November 3, and that oil prices would follow suit.

However, this prediction is not being priced into the market yet, as the physical supply problem has not moved. The Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf's main export corridor before the war, remains contested, and flows are still below prewar levels.

The current oil price is driven by the lack of tankers able to sail through the region, with at least two vessels attacked in recent days. Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 to $85 and $80, respectively.

A cheaper oil price would be bullish for cryptocurrency due to two channels: the Fed's interest rate decisions and mining costs. The Fed has been raising rates to combat inflation, which is linked to energy prices. Cheaper power also improves miner margins, reducing forced selling of newly issued coins and taking supply pressure off the market.

However, this trade has worked before, with oil falling in March after Trump said the campaign was nearly complete. The market learned that de-escalation headlines only provide temporary relief, and actual agreements are not yet priced in.