VanEck Sees $1 Million Bitcoin by 2029: Base-Case Scenario

VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel made headlines when he said that Bitcoin could hit $1 million per coin within roughly five years. This projection is part of VanEck's base-case scenario, not a long-shot bet.

Sigel pointed to demographic shifts and rising allocations from younger investors as structural drivers for this growth. He also cited the first central bank purchase of Bitcoin for reserves as evidence that adoption has moved past retail speculation.

To explain the trajectory, Sigel compared Bitcoin to the video game industry, arguing that an asset class once seen as niche tends to broaden across age groups.

Sigel acknowledged the road ahead will be rough, with Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq at a five-year high and macro forces steering the current rally rather than crypto-specific speculation. However, he noted that the lack of froth in derivatives markets supports a constructive outlook.